SACRAMENTO — Hunter S. Thompson once wrote, “Buy the ticket, take the ride.”
More than 50 years later, his words ring true for California farmers, particularly those in the Central Valley, who embraced Donald Trump’s election promises. Now, they find themselves on an unpredictable journey with uncertain consequences.
Thompson, the legendary gonzo journalist and “national affairs editor” of Rolling Stone magazine, likely had little interest in crops beyond marijuana. But if he were still around, it would be intriguing to read his take on Trump’s strong support from California’s agricultural sector and the president’s subsequent policies affecting them.
In November, Trump won 15 Central Valley farm belt counties—securing landslide victories in nine—surpassing his 2020 performance, when he carried 10 counties. His administration has pledged to increase water supply for farming, but at the same time, has heightened fears among farm laborers, many of whom are at risk of deportation.
Simultaneously, Trump’s trade policies may shrink farmers’ export profits while driving up consumer food costs. His efforts to redirect irrigation water to the San Joaquin Valley via the federal Central Valley Project could also come at the expense of Southern California farmers, as state water allocations would likely be reduced.
To make this happen, Trump would need to weaken the federal Endangered Species Act, a move courts blocked during his first term. Doing so would lessen protections for dwindling fish populations like salmon. But even if federal restrictions are loosened, California’s own environmental laws could lead to the state compensating for the loss by limiting water flow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta to Southern California and the Central Coast.
Trump’s understanding of California’s water system and farmers’ needs has repeatedly been called into question. A recent example was his directive for the Army Corps of Engineers to release water from two small dams in the Tulare Basin, a move that many saw as wasteful. While some of that water will replenish aquifers, winter is when farmers prefer to store water in reservoirs for use during dry summer months. Instead of benefiting agriculture, the sudden release of water raised concerns, especially as a storm loomed.
Trump, however, framed it as a victory. He posted a photo of a surging river on X, captioning it: “Photo of beautiful water flow that I just opened in California. Today, 1.6 billion gallons…. Everybody should be happy about this long fought victory! I only wish they listened to me six years ago—there would have been no [L.A.] fire!”
Hallucination.
Farmers remain uncertain about how far Trump’s immigration policies will go in targeting undocumented workers, who make up at least half of California’s farm labor force. While Trump claims he is focusing on deporting those with serious criminal records, history has shown that law-abiding individuals often get caught up in enforcement efforts.
Assemblywoman Esmeralda Soria (D-Fresno), whose parents migrated from Mexico in the 1970s to work in the fields, understands these concerns firsthand. “Dad was caught several times and deported. And he came back,” she recalled.
This is a common experience. Even legally authorized farmworkers have been mistakenly detained and held for hours. Soria has heard reports that some laborers are now too fearful to report to work—right in the middle of citrus harvest season, when orange pickers are in high demand. “Without workers our food supply will collapse,” she warned while advocating for a $25 million state fund to provide legal aid for immigrants. “California agriculture will face a depression not like anything you’ve seen in decades.”
The California Farm Bureau Federation has stated it has seen no “widespread workforce disruption” due to immigration raids but emphasized the need for “real solutions” that account for the realities of agriculture rather than “blanket enforcement measures that put the entire agriculture system at risk.”
If Trump follows through with mass deportations, UCLA economics professor Jerry Nickelsburg predicts farmers will face sharply rising labor costs. “And that will lead to higher food prices,” he said.
Meanwhile, Trump’s escalating trade war with China, Mexico, and Canada presents another challenge. “Tariffs are a bad deal. And for California agriculture, they’re really bad news,” says Daniel Sumner, a UC Davis agricultural economist.
“The U.S. buys lots of fruits and vegetables from Mexico. We’d lose out and pay more,” Sumner explained. In retaliation, Mexico could impose tariffs on California exports, including dairy. “Mexico is our biggest buyer of milk,” he noted, meaning reduced profits for the state’s dairy farmers.
Hunter S. Thompson had another observation that feels relevant today. Reflecting on the 1972 presidential race, he wrote: “McGovern made some stupid mistakes, but in context they seem almost frivolous compared to the things Richard Nixon does every day of his life on purpose…. Jesus! Where will it end?”
For Nixon, it ended with the Watergate scandal and his resignation. For California’s farmers, the outcome of their political gamble remains uncertain. They bought the Trump ticket and are now on the ride—wherever it leads. Let’s hope, for their sake and California’s, that it’s not as rough as it seems.
